From: Gordon Edwards [mailto:ccnr@web.ca]
Sent: Wednesday, January 20, 2010 1:38 AM
To: Gordon Edwards
Subject: Prognos: Nuclear power losing in importance world-wide
Prognos: Nuclear power
losing in importance world-wide
The latest "Prognos" survey predicts
a global decline of nuclear energy
WIEN INTERNATIONAL , January 10, 2010
http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/16702
The world-wide renaissance of nuclear power that has so
often been predicted will not take place in the next few
decades. Nuclear energy will be on the decline till the year
2030, and will continue to decline in importance globally.
This is the conclusion of the Swiss "Prognos" institute based
in Basel. Germany´s Federal Agency for Radiation Protection
in Salzgitter / Lower Saxony commissioned "Prognos" to carry
out a survey on "the renaissance of nuclear energy". The task
was to provide a realistic estimate of the future development
of nuclear energy world-wide till the year 2030. The most
important results are reproduced below:
No renaissance - nuclear power in decline
• The study does not anticipate a renaissance in the use of
nuclear energy by the year 2030. On the contrary, shutdowns
of aged plants will lead to a decrease in the total number of
reactors, and there will be a significant decline in installed
capacity and electricity generation from nuclear power plants.
• Compared to the reference level of March 2009, the number
of nuclear power stations in operation worldwide is likely to
decrease by 22% by the year 2020, and by about 29% by the
year 2030. * Despite an increase in construction activity of
nuclear power stations compared to construction in the last
10 years, the level of the building boom of the 1970s/80s will
not be reached again.
Almost 30% fewer nuclear power stations by 2030
* Although the number of announcements of new nuclear power
stations is on the increase, in the past the ambitious expansion
plans -- particularly in the USA, but also in other countries --
have subsequently not materialized. The study anticipates that
about 23% of all the projects announced by ATW, the German
"International Journal for Nuclear Power" for the period until
2020 will be realized, whilst about 35% of the projects announced
by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) for the period until 2030
will be realized.
* The forecast will be impacted particularly by the assumptions
made with respect to the remaining lifetime of existing nuclear
power stations and the extent to which the announcements made
by China, Russia, the USA, India and Japan are implemented.
* If all the projects announced were to be realized, this would mean
an increase in construction activity that would overshadow the rapid
increase in construction activity at the beginning of the 1970s. This
seems extremely unlikely at the present time.
Nuclear energy in decline
* Even by comparison to the forecast rapid growth in world-wide
electricity consumption, nuclear energy will decline significantly in
importance by the year 2030. The percentage of world-wide
electricity generation accounted for by nuclear energy will decline
from 14.8% in the year 2006 to an estimated 9.1% in the year 2020,
and to 7.1% in the year 2030.
* Other scenarios -- such as the "low" scenario of the OECD/Nuclear
Energy Agency and the reference scenario of the World Energy
Outlook 2008 by the International Energy Agency -- also indicate
that nuclear energy will have a declining share of world-wide
electricity generation. The development of output forecast in this
study is most closely aligned with the results of the current "phase
out life extension" scenario of the OECD-NEA.
The background: there are currently 436 nuclear power stations in
operation, whose average age is already 24 years. The number of
reactors has been declining since the year 2002, when there were
still 444 reactors connected to the grid. However, many construction
projects are now getting bogged down, and work on several of them
has been stopped for years. In actual fact, there are only 37 new
nuclear reactors currently under construction. This will not be
enough to compensate for the decline world-wide.
436 nuclear reactors world-wide
The media have reacted with glee to the completely contrary results
arrived at by the "Prognos" researchers compared to the construction
boom predicted for nuclear power stations that has never actually
come to pass. "Süddeutsche Zeitung", for instance, gloated: "The
mythical renaissance of nuclear power." Everything has been prepared
for the big comeback of nuclear power that will never even take place!
There are plans as far as the eye can see. Poland is looking for a site
for a new nuclear power station, possibly not far from the German
border. Switzerland is intending to build new reactors. The United
Kingdom has invited investors. Italy has overturned its exit from
nuclear power, as has Sweden. A new reactor is under construction
in Finland, and in France too. Everything seems to have been
prepared for the big renaissance of nuclear power. But only in theory.
In reality, the role played by reactors will decline over the next few
years. Many nuclear projects world-wide are already at a standstill.
In view of the growing financing problems and political instability, only
a third of the planned new projects will be realized world-wide. At best.
And wherever construction is under way, there are also problems, the
"Süddeutsche" continues. Many projects that were thought to be dead
certs are about to be cancelled.
Contact: Prognos AG, Basel Henric Petri Strasse 9 CH-4010 Basel Telephone: +41 61 3273-
200 Telefax: +41 61 3273-300 info@prognos.com
Français
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